updraft

n. upward movement (of air, gas, etc)

Australia's property market is gently landing in what is probably one of the mildest ever housing downturns, but it could be at least three years before the next updraft propels it back up.

Dismissing as "simplistic" and "potentially misleading" claims that the market is diving, ANZ Bank said the Melbourne market had probably already bottomed, with strong overseas migration, a positive outlook for the world economy, low interest rates and low unemployment likely to keep it simmering.

"In the absence of recession, there is high probability that the adjustment … will be an orderly one and will not be associated with a major fall in house prices," the report said.

"With the labour market booming and (interest rates) expected to be on hold for the remainder of 2005, broad economic fundamentals remain supportive for property markets."

Melbourne house prices have fallen by around 3 per cent since their December 2003 quarter peak. Prices, however, remain 60 per cent above 2000 levels.
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[ Housing, economy in soft landing ]